Thursday, December 12, 2013

The Surge of Mobile Wallets: Hype vs. Reality

by Michael Bershadski, Managing Partner at Onyx Venture Advisors
Dec. 12, 2013

Ever since the launch of the first iPhone in 2007, there has been a major shift in consumer behavior toward mobile media consumption, shopping and payments.  Mobile commerce is expected to surpass $86B by 2016 in the U.S. alone, according to eMarketer.  Our phones have already replaced our cameras, music players, web browsers, and navigation systems, so the idea that phones will soon replace our wallets is highly plausible.  

Considering that, I thought it would be interesting to put some of the recent announcements in this space into perspective.

After three years of testing and development, major U.S. carriers have finally rolled out Isis, a joint mobile payment initiative in November (available to AT&T, T-Mobile and Verizon customers).  The Isis Mobile Wallet stores credit cards and loyalty programs and makes it possible for users to complete payments simply by waving their phone in front of the check out terminal.  The wallet takes advantage of near-field-communication (NFC) technology and is accepted at thousands of merchant locations nationwide.  However acceptance is far from ubiquitous, as majority of merchants are yet to upgrade existing point of sale (POS) systems to new contactless terminals.  Whether Isis succeeds or fails will be largely determined by widespread adoption of contactless terminals, ease of use and ultimately the carriers’ ability to convince mainstream users of its value and benefits. 

Google, which first piloted an NFC mobile wallet back in 2011, has recently issued a physical debit card that allows users to withdraw funds from their Google Wallet account in an attempt to broaden its reach and bridge the gap with legacy POS systems. Despite being one of the early proponents of NFC in the U.S., Google Wallet has struggled to gain meaningful traction with consumers, and its tap-and-pay feature has been hindered by the carriers, who have all but blocked it from their networks in favor of their own proprietary wallet, Isis (Sprint is the sole U.S. carrier supporting Google Wallet and is not part of the Isis consortium).

Meanwhile, a new startup called Coin announced plans to develop a programmable card that can store multiple credit cards, debit cards, and loyalty accounts and has a new kind of magnetic strip capable of replicating any stored account at the press of a button, allthewhile maintaining physical dimensions of a traditional card (i.e. compatible with existing magnetic swipe terminals). Coin appears to have taken a clue from Google Wallet by developing a proprietary device that is outside of the carriers’ reach and is compatible with legacy POS systems.  However, Coin has yet to face card issuers, payment networks, and financial regulators as it attempts to process and store sensitive payment information.    

While financial institutions have for the most part embraced mobile banking, there is a general sense of unease surrounding POS transactions.  This is primarily driven by the financial sector’s reluctance to share a slice of transaction fees with contenders and desire to protect current merchant discount rates.  That said, the battle is not only over merchant fees, another contentious issue is the data associated with financial transactions.  This is arguably the real reason why Internet giants such as Google have a vested interest in mobile payments.  After all, whoever owns transaction data holds the keys to a treasure trove of consumer behavior information (when and where they shop, what they purchase) and is in a position to influence future purchasing decisions by serving more targeted and timely ads, deals, and offers.

Technology has the power to disrupt industries and to change the power dynamics among the key players.  Publishing and music industries are but two recent examples.  As new mobile payment mechanisms evolve in the form of mobile wallets, smart cards, and (someday soon) wearable devices, they may well threaten financial institutions’ grip on merchant fees and transaction data.  While the financial sector is highly regulated and the underlying payment networks so far remain largely unchanged, the world is changing.  Those that adopt short-term defensive strategies will face long-term risk of being left on the sidelines, disintermediated and ultimately not in control of the customer interface.











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